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Introducing the Peace Observatory: Peace Negotiations in Armed Conflicts, 1989-2023

Resource Key: W3YZA3ID

Document Type: Report

Creator:

Author:

  • Allard Duursma
  • Janek Bruker
  • Carina Diener
  • Samantha Gamez
  • Valentin Geier
  • Arianna Guidolin

Creators Name:

Place:

Institution: Peace Observatory

Date: 2025

Language: en

This article introduces the Peace Observatory, a new global dataset that captures
over 11,000 rounds of peace negotiations in interstate, intrastate, and non-state conflicts
between 1989 and 2023. The Peace Observatory disaggregates peacemaking into distinct
negotiation rounds. Each round is coded by its phase in the peace process (prenegotiation,
negotiation, or implementation), topics discussed, mediator involvement, and outcomes. This
level of detail enables new insights into the sequencing, design, and effectiveness of peace
efforts over time. To demonstrate the value of the dataset, the article explores how the
involvement of autocratic states as mediators affects negotiation outcomes. Using round-level
data, the analysis shows that the involvement of autocratic mediators is associated with a higher
probability of concluding negotiated settlements, but also that autocratic involvement is
associated with shorter-lived negotiated settlements. This exploratory analysis demonstrates
that the Peace Observatory offers a novel empirical foundation to unpack peace processes.
More broadly and beyond, the Peace Observatory will make it possible to study how peace
processes unfold, providing scholars and practitioners with the tools to examine when, how,
and why negotiations gain traction, stall, or succeed.

Download Document

Introducing the Peace Observatory: Peace Negotiations in Armed Conflicts, 1989-2023

Resource Key: W3YZA3ID

Document Type: Report

Creator:

Author:

  • Allard Duursma
  • Janek Bruker
  • Carina Diener
  • Samantha Gamez
  • Valentin Geier
  • Arianna Guidolin

Creators Name: {mb_resource_zotero_creatorsname}

Place:

Institution: Peace Observatory

Date: 2025

Language: en

This article introduces the Peace Observatory, a new global dataset that captures
over 11,000 rounds of peace negotiations in interstate, intrastate, and non-state conflicts
between 1989 and 2023. The Peace Observatory disaggregates peacemaking into distinct
negotiation rounds. Each round is coded by its phase in the peace process (prenegotiation,
negotiation, or implementation), topics discussed, mediator involvement, and outcomes. This
level of detail enables new insights into the sequencing, design, and effectiveness of peace
efforts over time. To demonstrate the value of the dataset, the article explores how the
involvement of autocratic states as mediators affects negotiation outcomes. Using round-level
data, the analysis shows that the involvement of autocratic mediators is associated with a higher
probability of concluding negotiated settlements, but also that autocratic involvement is
associated with shorter-lived negotiated settlements. This exploratory analysis demonstrates
that the Peace Observatory offers a novel empirical foundation to unpack peace processes.
More broadly and beyond, the Peace Observatory will make it possible to study how peace
processes unfold, providing scholars and practitioners with the tools to examine when, how,
and why negotiations gain traction, stall, or succeed.

Download Document